November 19, 2005

Island's Rush-Hour Transit
Problems Likely to Increase;
No Clear Solutions in Sight
News Analysis by Lillian Shuey Picchione

Crowded subway platforms, a tram outage, and afternoon gridlock on Main Street have residents wondering whether Roosevelt Island’s transportation needs will be met as its population grows.

"Jammed," says Viera Vangler, describing the state of the rush-hour trains she has dealt with since moving here in March.

"Horrible," says 16-year resident Kasia Edelman. She remembers that it "used to be nice when we had Q or S. I don’t expect a seat, but it would be nice to be able to get on the train."

Lillian Shuey Picchione, a member of the American Institute of Certified Planners (AICP), is a transportation planner with Interactive Elements, Inc., which does mass transit planning for public agencies. She also represents Manhattan Park on the Common Council of the Residents Association.

Unable to get on a crowded F train one morning this week, Ivonne Silva explained that "sometimes I let a few trains pass before I get on." Indeed, informal checks show that trains from Queens often arrive too full to take on additional passengers.

Joe Bell, a musician and music teacher, is looking to authorities to address the problem. "I am extremely concerned with how MTA plans to handle getting people into Manhattan during rush hour. The F line is already full to capacity. There are times when my wife waits for a second or third train." It hasn’t dampened their enthusiasm for Island life, however; the family, four-year residents of Manhattan Park, are planning a mid-winter move to a condominium at Riverwalk.

One thing is clear: With the opening of Riverwalk and The Octagon in the coming year, demands for transportation services on and off the Island are going to grow. What is not clear is what efforts, if any, are under way to address the coming challenge. The Roosevelt Island Operating Corporation (RIOC) has said nothing about transportation planning, other than to say that transportation issues will be addressed.

A key question, though, is whether they will be addressed in time to avoid serious problems as the Island’s population grows.

RIOC addressed transportation concerns during planning for The Octagon Apartments. In completing an Environmental Assessment Form, RIOC addressed a question about subway crowding by saying that the number of new peak hour riders did not merit review. The projection – that the 500-plus apartments will create a maximum of 194 peak-hour subway riders – was just under the 200 that would trigger a detailed transportation analysis.

Increasing Demand

This incremental approach does not address the cumulative impact of Southtown and Octagon. And RIOC’s five recently issued RFIPs (Requests for Initial Proposals) could lead to more housing that would expand the residential population well beyond the already hefty increases anticipated from the Octagon project, the opening of the new Riverwalk building in Southtown, and six more Southtown buildings yet to come – at least one more in 2006.

The new residents are likely to have a disproportionately high impact on rush-hour crowding. That’s because the newest housing is selling at high prices and renting for higher rates. New residents are therefore likely to be wealthier than current residents, and Manhattan-bound in higher proportions during rush period. By contrast, the lower-income residents in the present population – retirees, students, and the unemployed – are more likely to travel in off-peak hours.

Where to Turn?

All this raises the question of where we might look for improved service. Roosevelt Islanders have a number of transportation options – Tram, F-line, cars, the Q102 bus. But variety can obscure two key considerations: ln themselves, multiple transit options do not amount to adequate capacity.

And capacity requirements make the subway all-important. Further, when the F-line is down, residents can’t simply walk a few blocks to another line, or take a bus. A recent F-line outage demonstrated that islands are particularly in need of redundant transportation.

Tram at Capacity

According to the 2000 census, a full 74% of Island residents use public transportation to get to work. That means that when F-trains aren’t running, the Tramway cannot handle the demand for rush-hour trips to Manhattan. RIOC President Herb Berman recently added Tram capacity, starting high-frequency Tram service 90 minutes earlier (at 3:00 p.m. instead of 4:30), a measure that eases crowding for students headed home from school.

But the heaviest demand for commuter trips occurs in the concentrated morning rush. During those hours, the Tram is already running at capacity. Unfortunately, the system’s structure precludes adding trips. Trams already run close to the shortest possible interval, reloading and departing immediately upon arrival. The system’s supporting structures allow for little increase in weight, though new, lighter cabins, if RIOC follows through with purchase plans already being discussed, might carry a few more passengers. The towers would not support other options, such as a two-level cabin or pairs of cabins docking in tandem on each side of the river.

Subway at Capacity

With Tram service difficult to increase significantly, Islanders might look to the MTA for improved subway service. But a brief look at subway crowding is not encouraging.

During rush hour out in Queens, E and F trains alternate on the Queens Boulevard Line, following each other at the shortest safe interval. Adding more F service would mean cutting E service and, according to the Straphangers Campaign, E trains are more crowded than F-trains. New York City Transit (NYCT), which makes its decisions based on loading standards, is unlikely to provide increased F service.

Many Islanders fondly recall the Q service, which terminated just past the Island at 21st Street in Queens. With only one stop for Manhattan-bound passengers before the Island, trains often arrived near empty. When the 63rd Street Connector was completed, the F replaced the Q, connecting outlying Queens to Manhattan. There appears to be little incentive to restore Q service because the 63rd Street Connector was specifically intended to increase capacity from outlying Queens. According to a U.S. Department of Transportation report, the connector was "designed to increase the number of rush-hour trains into Manhattan by 50 percent, from 30 to 45, easing overcrowding on the E and F lines."

Our loss is a gain for Queens. As the U.S. DOT report says, "New York City Transit estimates that the average Queens rider on the E, F, and R lines saves approximately 31 hours per year because of the 63rd Street Connection project." This means little for Roosevelt Island, other than to make it unlikely NYCT will do anything that might jeopardize a confirmed success.

Cars Unlikely to Help

Only seven percent of Islanders drive to work, according to census data. That’s an incredibly low number by comparison to both New York City and the nation as a whole. It’s not likely to increase much, because being inconvenienced by jammed transit is still preferable to round trips through Queens to limited and expensive Manhattan parking.

Bus Service Little Help

Bus service to Manhattan could be increased, but it’s not likely to be popular, because the travel time is not competitive with the subway or Tram. Most travelers would opt for a five-minute ride to Manhattan on a packed subway over a lengthy bus ride. In addition, Main Street congestion, especially in late afternoon when school buses line Main Street, undermines bus service.

Ferry Service

Given the problems with adding capacity to existing transportation services, what are the alternatives? In the community-planning process for Southpoint Park, residents supported the idea of a pier for ferry service. And the Island has some historical experience with ferries, which served Island institutions in the Welfare Island days, as well as a brief experiment a decade and a half back.

One advantage of ferries is that they can continue to operate during power failures. A prime example was the invaluable service offered in the wake of the 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center Towers, when ferries were used in the evacuation of lower Manhattan. Ferry service could decentralize off-island transit away from the Tram and subway stations to other points on the Island. Possibilities include the pier near Octagon Park, which would allow better service off-island for Manhattan Park and Octagon residents and those Coler employees who live in Manhattan. Service to Southpoint Park would benefit Goldwater hospital employees. However, it is unclear how many hospital employees live in Manhattan. A careful review of origin and destination patterns among employees would be needed.

Instituting ferry service presents significant challenges – questions about cost and cost-effectiveness, pollution considerations, and the uncertain value of service terminating not in the heart of Manhattan, but at the water’s edge.

Ferry service is also sensitive to fuel costs, and the East River’s powerful tidal currents would consume a large amount of fuel per mile traveled. Further, ferry service demands a significant capital outlay in piers, docking facilities, and vessels. The ideal provider would be a company like New York Water Taxi, which already operates a number of small, speedy catamarans, offering service between Long Island City and East 34th Street. While no transportation service is without subsidy – even cars are heavily subsidized through government attention to roads, bridges and traffic control – a Roosevelt Island ferry competing for transportation dollars would have to stand up to an evaluation for cost-effectiveness.

Air pollution and noise problems can also be obstacles to ferry service. These days, low-emissions diesel and low-wake craft are available (and used by New York Water Taxi), but legal challenges are still possible.

As for destinations, an analysis of journey-to-work census data would help determine if the available docking sites are compatible with actual commuting needs.

Conclusions

While Roosevelt Island is lucky to have a number of transportation services, increasing capacity in any of our systems presents real challenges. Significant increases in Tram, automobile, or subway service will not come easily, and bus service to Manhattan isn’t likely to be popular.

Whether Roosevelt Island management is planning for the increased transportation demand that will be generated by increased housing is unclear. Despite current crowding, RIOC has put out several Requests for Initial Proposals (RFIPs), indicating an intent to add more housing capacity.

The RFIP for a 28-story residential tower near Coler Hospital is one source of concern, especially when added to six buildings yet to be built in Southtown. But the most alarming proposal is the one for a large commercial development at the Tram station. RIOC’s RFIP describes the site as "well-positioned to accommodate commercial ‘big box’ facilities that are typically challenging to construct in dense, urban areas." It is hard to envision our bridge and roadways meeting the needs of the delivery trucks and automobile traffic bound for a Wal-Mart or Target.

Given the Island’s necessary reliance on subway service as the only true high-capacity system, residents might hope that the MTA will anticipate the Island’s needs and provide the necessary facilities, either through construction or reconfiguration of service. But there are no obvious answers and, in any case, no clear indication that answers are being sought or will be easy to come by or to implement.

Meanwhile, the pace of housing construction on the Island is clearly already outstripping whatever thinking is being done here about how to satisfy the mass transit needs of those who will occupy that housing. The questions, in short, are racing past any known effort to find and implement workable answers.